What the data from April 5 reveals: the ‘weekend effect’ accelerates optimism
Every day, we face a sea of data. Here we will try to select the most relevant ones that Health offers every noon and explain what they really mean
The data offered this Sunday by the Ministry of Health reveals some things such as the continuous drop in the rate of new cases and deaths from coronavirus . In the last 24 hours, Spain has added 674 more deaths (for a total of 12,418) and 7,026 additional infections (almost 130,000 already). This represents a reduction in the daily percentage increase, which gives us an idea of how the transmission of the virus is being contained. In the case of those infected, that figure is 4.8% and this Saturday it was 6%. In the case of the dead, it has gone from 7.4% yesterday to 5.7.
However, it is necessary to make a couple of qualifications to these figures. The first is the so-called ‘Tuesday effect’. As they are balances offered over the weekend, there are bags of cases not reported for logistical reasons received on Monday. What this does is that in the report that is offered the second day of the week we find small increases amid downward trends. For example, last Saturday and Sunday the new daily cases increased by 9.1% and 8.9%, respectively. On Tuesday the figure was above 10 percent again and as of Wednesday it continued to drop. Therefore, it is expected that the day after tomorrow we will find a slight rise.
The other nuance that must be done is that the reported cases are cases with severe symptoms, health or essential personnel where the diagnostic capacity has been focused, as explained by Health. Facing the next phase, the Government is preparing a macro-study to find out exactly how many Spaniards have passed the disease.
Castilla-La Mancha became this Saturday the third autonomous community to exceed 10,000 cases of Covid-19. The latest update puts 10,031 people infected by the disease in the region, which is also the third in deaths (1,055). Only Madrid (which already accumulates 37,584 positives) and Catalonia (26,031) had exceeded before the 10,000 threshold. But the absolute numbers don’t say it all.
In Castilla-La Mancha, the increase in cases has been slowing down in the last week: last Sunday the positives rose by 16.3% and today they have done so by 7.6%. The pace drops, but the community is above the Spanish average. The incidence of coronavirus there is one of the highest in the entire country: 493 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, considerably more than Catalonia, for example. Only Madrid (564) and La Rioja (818) surpass him.
Inconsistent ICU data
The ICU data is inconsistent . Between Friday and Saturday, those admitted to the ICU went from 6,532 to 6,861, 5%. The percentage is much higher than the one given 24 hours before: 1.8%. And none serves to draw great conclusions because the total number is a mixture of cases accumulated since the beginning of the health crisis and of those admitted at the end of the day in the only five autonomous communities that provide this information: Castilla-La Mancha, Castilla-León , Valencian Community, Galicia and Madrid. To this we must add that there are fewer and fewer ICUs free ( Fernando Simón pointed out its possible collapse this weekend or the next few days ).